Weekly Export Risk Outlook, January 15

01.16.2015 ZF English

First estimates show the Germany's economy posted a solid growth last year, while Russia heads for a deep recession in 2015, Euler Hermes said in this week's Export Risk Outlook report.

First official estimates indicate that real GDP increased by 1.5% in Germany last year, after a meager 0.2% in 2013, and more than the average of the past ten years (1.2%), Euler Hermes analysts wrote in this week's report.

On the other hand, inflation went down in the past months following the trend of oil prices, which should accomodate a supportive monetary policy and propel growth in the EU.

The lower oil price is bad news for Russia, whose currency was battered in the second half of 2014, and has now lost half of its value at the end of 2013. Euler Hermes expects a deep recession in 2015 (-5.5%) as the impact of the sharp fall in oil prices and the ruble, as well as existing economic sanctions, takes full effect.

For other information about the European and global economies, see the full report.