Weekly Export Risk Outlook, May 20

05.21.2015 ZF English

Both Russia and Ukraine are in recession after the first-quarter GDP readings, while most of Europe is now recovering, Euler Hermes noted in this week's Export Risk Outlook report.

Russia's economy slipped into recession, as expected, but the 1.9% year-to-year contraction was less severe than widely forecast, Euler Hermes analysts wrote in this week's report.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine the recession deepened further, as a flash estimate showed the 1Q real GDP contracted 17.6% y/y and 6.5% q/q. Euler Hermes now forecasts a GDP decline of at leats 8% for the whole of 2015.

However, the Central and Eastern European economies don't seem too affected by the Ukraine conflict as strong domestic demand and the ongoing recovery in the euro-zone propelled them higher. Romania was at the forefront of the 11 EU members in CEE, with a 4.3% y/y growth in the first quarter, followed by the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary.

The real GDP in the region advanced 3.1% in the first quarter, following a gradual decline during 2014, to 2.4% in the final quarter. 

See other information about the European and global economies, in the full report.