EBRD Raises Romania GDP Forecast To +1.8% In 2011

05.20.2011 By Florentina Dragu

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Friday revised upward its forecast for Romanian economic growth to 1.8% in 2011, from 1.1% previously, saying it expects harsh austerity measures implemented under a multilateral financial program will pay off.

"In Romania, the government has managed to complete successfully the IMF program by implementing harsh austerity measures that will keep the fiscal accounts under control," EBRD said in its Regional Economic Prospects report.

The bank said the southeast Europe continues to lag behind other regions in terms of the pace of recovery from the crisis, with the exception of Turkey, where growth is now proceeding at a rapid pace.

"The one bright spot is the external sector, where exports in most countries are growing rapidly reflecting both a base effect from the deep slump in 2009 and renewed global demand for key exports from the region," the report noted.

However, except in Turkey and Romania, domestic demand remains sluggish as financial systems continue to unwind imbalances after the pre-crisis boom and consumer and investor confidence stays low, EBRD said.

For 2011, EBRD expects the economy will pick up to 2.2% in the region, up from a growth of 1.9% previously predicted.

EBRD's forecast for the southeast Europe covers Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia Turkey.