Was Fitch in a hurry when it lowered Romania's rating outlook? What arguments are there for Standard & Poor's and Moody's not to do the same? And 10 questions.

There is a strong asymmetry among the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in terms of country ratings and economic conditions. The performance of the countries that are part of the Eurozone should be higher, not the other way around. The analysis of economic data that underpins the decisions regarding rating allocations may indicate that Romania has been or is currently undervalued, or that its positioning at the lowest investment-grade level is rather unfair compared to other countries that do not have a better situation. Moreover, Fitch's downgrade of Romania’s outlook from stable to negative adds further negative effects to an already complicated regional context, amid uncertainty and especially the war in Ukraine.

 

Despite all the progress made between 2014 and 2024, which we will detail below, Romania has remained or is rated lower in terms of both rating and outlook compared to all CEE and Baltic countries. It is as if Romania had stagnated politically, economically, and socially over the past decade, a notion contradicted by all international institutions, official statistics, and even the strengths highlighted in rating agencies' evaluation reports. Furthermore, as shown in the table below, updated with the latest available data, two out of the three major rating agencies place Romania in the lowest investment-grade category (Moody’s and Fitch), while S&P places us in this category alongside Hungary.

 

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